Daegu's official Facebook page reports that the Shincheon River east of Camps Walker and Henry has swollen to dangerous levels and more than a dozen roads in low-lying areas near rivers have closed.
Its current forecast track calls for 11W to pass 324 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 6 a.m. Sunday. Tropical Depression 11W: At 9 p.m., it was 313 miles east-southeast of Iwo Jima and 1,121 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, moving southwest at 14 mph with 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts.
Camp Humphreys' official Facebook page says to expect gusts up to 50 mph and between 2 to 4 inches of rain through Thursday.
If you are out and the rain is seriously affecting visibility, slow down. This is when your preparation should be completed. Sasebo's weather forecast continues to call for wings picking up Sunday into Monday, peaking at 69- to 75-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts at 7 a.m. with showers and thunderstorms. Humphreys' official Facebook page says to expect gusts between 50 and 60 mph and between 2 to 4 inches of rain associated with Maysak. At 9 p.m., Bavi was 262 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base and had strengthened to 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center. Those pages are updated frequently. Once it moves out of the Okinawa area, Maysak is forecast by JTWC to track generally north, then northeast at mid-day Wednesday, then come ashore over Korea's south coast late Wednesday or early Thursday, still packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center. But Okinawa should still feel some effect. If off base, do not go visiting areas such as Bolo Point or Maeda Point on Okinawa to see the breakers; a maverick wave could pull you into the drink.
JTWC forecasts Maysak to pass 19 miles west-northwest of Daegu-Area IV and 25 miles west-northwest of Naval Base Chinhae between 5 and 6 a.m. Thursday. Maysak is then forecsat to pass 50 miles west-northwest of Naval Base Chinhae, 75 miles east-southeast of Kunsan Air Base and 42 miles west-northwest of Daegu-Area IV between 4 and 6 a.m. Thursday. Weather Flight also forecasts between 7 to 9 inches of rain associated with Maysak. Model track guidance and the ECMWF and CMC forecast ensembles depict movement toward Okinawa, but solutions regarding intensity and how close it might come vary. All outdoor activity is prohibited. ***
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It's now due to pass 64 miles southwest of island at 7 a.m. Tuesday packing Category 4-equivalent strength.
-- Peak 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds and 40-knot (46-mph) gusts for Kadena, 45-knot (52-mph) gusts elsewhere: 8 a.m. Monday. -- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Monday. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Rainshowers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast, between a 50- and 70-percent chance, on Saturday and Sunday. The horizon is well defined and the outline of objects might be visible without artificial light. There still remains uncertainty regarding Maysak's forecast track. All rights reserved. -- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Tuesday. U.S. Unless things change dramatically, this should be Storm Tracker's final report regarding Haishen. Model track guidance and the GFS and CMC forecast ensembles all indicate general west-northwest movement, south and west of Hong Kong, toward southern China in the next three to four days, possibly reaching moderate tropical-storm strength. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Two words: Be careful!
Depending on the weather conditions, warnings, alerts, and emergency warnings may be announced.
If Haishen stays on present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts it to keep moving north-northwest, weakening to a Category 1-equivalent storm, passing 37 miles west of Sasebo at 5 a.m. Monday.
U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution):
7:45 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. Haishen is projected to weaken as it moves over land in Korea, making near-direct hits on Osan and Humphreys between 5 and 6 p.m. Monday. Regarding Okinawa, the rains have ceased and the gusts have given way to breezes and clouds, with the occasional stray shower here and there. If Higos remains on its present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts it to pass 62 miles south of Hong Kong at about 1 a.m.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Maysak to peak at Category 4-equivalent intensity, 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center, move north-northwest and pass 82 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 6 a.m. Tuesday, maintaining that intensity. How soon? JTWC's forecast track has edged a bit further west, with closest point of approach to Sasebo 31 miles west-southwest at 4 a.m. Monday and to Iwakuni 184 miles west-southwest an hour later. Destructive winds are no longer occurring on station. But track timing and intensity changes remain open to question. -- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Tuesday. On the Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness scoreboard, U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in TCCOR 1; that could be upgraded any time Sunday depending on observed wind speeds on a particular base or bases on island.
Osan remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, according to the base's official Facebook page, and is still calling for 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts with between 2 to 3 inches of rain through Thursday afternoon. Sasebo's forecast continues to call for 58- to 63-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts late Sunday into Monday with showers and thunderstorms. By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: August 16, 2020.
JTWC projects Maysak to pass 46 miles west of Daegu-Area IV, 73 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 48 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 1 and 5 a.m. Thursday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts, weakening as it moves over Korea's rugged terrain.
Bavi should pass 163 miles west of Sasebo at 5 p.m. Wednesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 3 p.m. Tuesday. Will it morph into a tropical cyclone? They would be facing Korea, as Lingling did last September when it created such havoc on peninsula. Tropical Storm Higos made landfall as Wednesday dawned. Those bases remain in seasonal TCCOR 4 for now. The primary difference is between the ECMWF and UKMET ensembles, which point to a track over the Yellow Sea, and the GFS ensembles, which favor a track closer to land.
Updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa is due out about 7 a.m. Saturday. If Bavi stays on present heading, JTWC forecasts it to remain off South Korea's west coast, start weakening as it reaches cooler water, pick up forward speed and make landfall in northwestern North Korea Thursday evening as a Category 1-equivalent storm. Today's temperature is forecast to be COOLER than yesterday. Next update just past 7 a.m. Monday.
Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. An updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa will be posted by Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight about 7 a.m. Saturday and published here soon after.
As always with such storms, no matter the TCCOR, best to be prepared. Okinawa Shi Weather Forecasts. Haishen would still be a Category 1-equivalent storm, 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center as it moves inland, following almost in the footsteps of Typhoon Maysak earlier this week. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1:
12:20 a.m. Monday, Sept. 7, Japan/Korea time: It's as direct a hit as can possibly be forecast: Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Haishen to make landfall right over Naval Base Chinhae at mid-morning Monday as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon. U.S. bases on island remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.
Low-lying areas are subject to flooding, and these sorts of winds can down a power line or two, break tree branches and damage buildings.
12:15 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 2, Japan/Korea time: Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan and U.S. bases in Korea continue bracing for Maysak's forecast arrival Wednesday evening as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, possibly Category 2. At 7:45 p.m., 90W was 670 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa.
Pregnant women in their third trimester should contact 18th Medical Group or the new U.S. Gonna take time before things fully calm down. 1:37 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). That's at storm's center.
Weather Flight also forecasts between 7 to 9 inches of rain associated with Maysak. Bavi's east quadrants, typically the stronger of the four, would be facing those bases.
What a long string of tropical cyclones that have affected Japan and Korea we've had these past six weeks! Showers and thunderstorms are forecast starting Saturday, a 50- to 70-percent chance through early Monday. -- Onset of 50-knot (58-mph) destructive sustained winds: 9 a.m. Monday. -- Onset of 58-mph gusts: 10 p.m. Wednesday.
Kadena's extended weather forecast still shows a wet, windy weekend in store for the island.
Real vs. -- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 3 p.m. Tuesday. Talk about a ton of rainfall on Okinawa in the last day.
Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are no longer occurring. Don't try to drive through flooded areas. Chinhae
Good, sound judgment comes into play regarding tropical cyclones, especially for those not used to them. Just days after Maysak. If Higos remains on its current track, it's forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass 88 miles south of Hong Kong at about 11 p.m. JTWC's forecast 34-knot (39-mph) wind bands are facing toward the north and east, closer to Hong Kong.
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